If you tried to buy a home in the GTA or Hamilton-Burlington during 2021 and 2022, you remember what that experience felt like. No conditions. Multiple competing offers. Homes sold over asking within days. For buyers, it was one of the most challenging environments in recent memory.
That market no longer exists.
What we’re navigating in 2026 is fundamentally different, and for buyers, it represents a meaningful shift in opportunity.
What the Data Is Telling Us
In the GTA, TRREB reported 5,039 sales in March 2026, with an average selling price of $1,017,796, down 6.7% year-over-year. TRREB’s full-year forecast has prices stabilizing in the $1M–$1.03M range, consistent with the month-over-month trends we’re already seeing.
In Hamilton and Burlington, Q1 2026 brought 1,698 sales, down 9.1% from Q1 2025. Median prices reflect the broader correction: single detached homes at $784,000 (down 5.5% year-over-year), townhouses at $649,900 (down 6.3%), and apartments at $445,000 (down 8.8%). April data showed Hamilton’s benchmark ticking up 1.4% month-over-month, an early signal that pricing is finding its floor.
The picture here is a market that has corrected from its peak and is now stabilizing. This is not a crash. It is a recalibration, and it creates a very different set of conditions for buyers.
Why This Market Favours Buyers
The numbers are clear. The GTA’s sales-to-new-listings ratio sat at 36.1% in February, well below the 40% threshold that defines a balanced market. Average days on market ranged from 31 to 54 days depending on the month. Homes sold at approximately 97% of asking price in February.
In Hamilton-Burlington, active inventory is up over 23% year-over-year. Single detached homes carry 3.8 months of supply. Townhouses sit at 3.2 months. These are conditions that give buyers time to research properly, to include conditions, and to negotiate with confidence.
Financing conditions are back. Home inspections are back. The ability to make a considered, informed decision is back.For buyers who have been waiting, the combination of lower prices and lower interest rates means purchasing power is stronger today than at any point in the past two years. That is a window worth paying attention to.
The Condo Market: A Closer Look
Buyers considering condos or apartments should understand that this segment is experiencing the most significant softness. In Toronto’s W03, condo prices are down over 12% year-over-year. In Hamilton-Burlington, apartment sales dropped 17.3% with median prices falling to $445,000 in Q1 2026, the steepest decline by property type.Elevated supply, investor pullback, and first-time buyer hesitation have all contributed to this dynamic. For buyers with flexibility on property type, condos currently offer some of the strongest negotiating positions in the market.
On Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% heading into 2026, but TRREB has noted that future rate increases are back under consideration. For buyers, this makes early rate conversations with your mortgage professional an important part of your strategy, not an afterthought.
How to Approach This Market
This is no longer a market that rewards speed above all else. It rewards preparation, clarity, and sound decision-making. A few principles worth keeping in mind:
Take the time to do proper due diligence. The inventory is there to support it. Include conditions that protect you. Negotiate, as two to five percent below asking is realistic in today’s environment. And resist the instinct to wait indefinitely. TRREB has noted that over 100,000 buyers are currently holding off. If consumer confidence strengthens in the second half of 2026, that demand re-enters the market and conditions shift.
The opportunity that exists right now is real. The question is whether you have the right strategy to act on it.
Thank you for reading!